NEXT-GEN REAL ESTATE PRICING
Powered by CRMLS data, Sell Odds represents a fundamental shift in real estate pricing. It estimates what a home is worth from closed sales, then estimates the odds it sells at the price you choose from the listings that actually sold and the ones that failed. The home's own record is read live, and every model is tested on outcomes it never saw.
The interactive price slider lets you explore probability at different price points.
Watch your probability shift as the price moves.
This is the conversation starter sellers need, and the data that changes minds.
This is pricing strategy backed by empirical evidence.
THE PROBLEM
THE INDUSTRY HAS BEEN ASKING
HALF THE QUESTION
For decades, the real estate industry has obsessed over one question: "What is my home worth?"
Zillow answers with a Zestimate. Redfin offers an estimate. Banks provide appraisals. Each one answers what the home is worth.
That's only half the question.
"What a home is worth and whether it will actually sell at that price are two entirely different questions. Sell Odds answers both."
THE SOLUTION
SELL ODDS Asked A Different Question
We didn't stop at another estimate of worth. We set out to answer the question that comes next:
"Given real market conditions, actual comparable outcomes, and specific property features, what is the probability of this home selling at this price?
"To answer this question, we couldn't rely on one hand picked set of comps or a borrowed estimate. We had to build something entirely new. A system that estimates probability from actual outcomes, and tests itself on listings it has never seen".
structured MLS data FOR value and probability
8
Filtering Gates Per Inquiry
5 yr
Closed Sales History
3 yr
Rolling Market Window
1000+
Lines of Probability Logic
Tested
On Unseen Listings
HISTORY MATTERS
Failed Listings Are Factored In
If comparable homes nearby expired, were withdrawn or were canceled, Sell Odds knows. Each one goes into the probability, at the last asking price it carried.
A cluster of failed listings near your price? That's a red flag. Asking prices like yours have ended without a sale.
The odds fall as the price climbs past what sold, and for a home on the market, the property page shows its own listing history, read live from the MLS.
This isn't punitive. It's realistic. Buyers and their agents research listing history. Sell Odds ensures you're not blindsided
by information the market already knows.
"This is what sets the Crystal Ball apart. The engine doesn't just look at what sold. It looks at what didn't sell. Expired listings. Withdrawn listings. Canceled listings. Every comparable listing that ended without a sale is part of the equation, at the last price it asked. Without failure data, probability is meaningless".
THE INNOVATION
The MARKET FRICTION INDEX
Price alone doesn't determine whether a home sells. Market conditions create resistance. Sell Odds reads that resistance driver by driver at the micro-market level, not countywide averages, not statewide trends.
Compare the City reading, free on every property page, with the Hyperlocal reading right around the home, which opens after you sign up, to see how conditions differ between the immediate neighborhood and the broader market.
Four friction drivers, sell-through rate, list-to-sale ratio, days on market and price elasticity, each show their own color-coded reading.
Each reading covers every attempt to sell that ended in the past twelve months, sold or not, measured against a normal market. This is the market context beside every probability score.
